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Economic Returns From Delayed Aging ....

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 Posted 3/22/2014 2:59:19 AM
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... vs. combating individual diseases:

"Substantial Health And Economic Returns From Delayed Aging May Warrant A New Focus For Medical Research

Recent scientific advances suggest that slowing the aging process (senescence) is now a realistic goal. Yet most medical research remains focused on combating individual diseases. Using the Future Elderly Model—a microsimulation of the future health and spending of older Americans—we compared optimistic “disease specific” scenarios with a hypothetical “delayed aging” scenario in terms of the scenarios’ impact on longevity, disability, and major entitlement program costs. Delayed aging could increase life expectancy by an additional 2.2 years, most of which would be spent in good health. The economic value of delayed aging is estimated to be $7.1 trillion over fifty years. In contrast, addressing heart disease and cancer separately would yield diminishing improvements in health and longevity by 2060—mainly due to competing risks. Delayed aging would greatly increase entitlement outlays, especially for Social Security. However, these changes could be offset by increasing the Medicare eligibility age and the normal retirement age for Social Security. Overall, greater investment in research to delay aging appears to be a highly efficient way to forestall disease, extend healthy life, and improve public health."

http://content.healthaffairs.org/content/32/10/1698.abstract

I did not read the paper. The work is based on a model and of course, as for every model, you need to understand the dependency of the outcome from the quality and variability of the data you put inside it.

Yet, this looks very indicative and why we should acclaim LEF, SENS, Google's Calico etc..... and of course our individual efforts.
Post #12314
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 Posted 4/4/2014 3:54:21 PM
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Now here's a downer: with everyone living longer, pensions will be longer. When retirement age was pegged at 65, what was the average life expectency then and how many remaining years of payout was anticipated? Something has to be updated.
Post #12511
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 Posted 4/4/2014 7:01:56 PM
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If people live in good health longer, the retirement age may be postponed.

However, one wonders just how limited the resources are or will be, and if there may be less need for workers yet more resources to help support them.
Post #12513
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 Posted 4/4/2014 8:07:56 PM
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You don't have to worry about that! less than 1% of 1% of people even try, or believe supplements work?they believe it's a waste $ Maybe there right put I hope IAM!! RIGHT

LIFE IS GOOD
Work to live not Live to work That's my motto 

http://ca.linkedin.com/pub/norm-lawlor/47/85/5bb

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 Posted 4/5/2014 8:01:52 AM
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Fascinating. Delayed aging has the potential to absolutely transform society as we know it. The more radical the change in aging years, the more it will alter everything else, every paradigm we know will be changed. People will readjust their time horizons in favor of long-term planning, family structures will change, relationships of power will up-end, nation-states will see radical restructuring as the social narratives that drive political power will radically transform, environmentalism will become more personal, as will political toleration for acts of war and deadly intervention.
I'm optimistic, I envision that rather than retirement years as dwindling pensioners living out diminishing twilight years, there will be a new emphasis on attending college, learning new skills, and re-tooling to fulfill life purpose in ways thought unattainable. With new able-bodied people contributing to society, there is going to be an explosion in human capital, people who have invested four-score decades of their lives in a profession only to lose their capacity will then be able to contribute instead of sink down the abyss of the memory hole called death. This, combined with our more interconnected world will see more citizen-scientists, creators, engineers, life extensionists. . .

Things are going to get exciting!



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 Posted 4/14/2014 7:04:39 PM
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I do believe that the average was 63 when the retirement age was set at 65. So half the people wouldn't make it that far to collect anyhow. By that standard you'd need to start collecting at around 75 today.

It really is just an inter-generational transfer of wealth.

As to keeping people healthy longer I'm all for that but a lot of people will want to retire at 65 and travel, etc. Unless they are very wealthy they will burn through all the money they put into social security in 5-7 years. Who pays for the next 20-30?

That is where the real problem lies. Financial planning for lifespans of 100+ in good health is not a course that is being offered. We'll just have to make it up as we go along.
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 Posted 4/14/2014 7:11:57 PM
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I like your optimism fastingly. Good stuff. With the free online courses available you can educate yourself at your pace for as far as you want to go. Khan Academy and other math sites are my personal favourites just to wake up those brain cells from 3 decades of slumber. I'm sure it's not everyone's cup of tea but I'm in my 50s and have fun doing it.

It will be hard to afford to do all the things you want to. Save money by growing as much of your own food as you can. ROI for my raspberry bushes was instant. I got the clumps of roots from a co-worker for free as he was cleaning out the over growth in his yard and 2 years later I'm eating $100+ worth of berries for free every year. That pays for other gardening projects (haskap berries) some landscaping etc.

How do you convince people to plan, try and take their time? They've lived their entire life in a hectic rat race. It is a huge adjustment.
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 Posted 4/27/2014 8:20:34 AM
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Thanks, Tim1361!
I agree, thinking of education as only coming out of an institution of higher learning, and an education as only by diploma is certainly an old paradigm.  I think the future will see a lot more autodidactic learners and avenues to expand our learning horizons with all the tools becoming available to us.



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